SEO calculator | Predict number of clicks per month

This SEO tool is to help you understand the difficulty to rank up on Google and predict the number of potential clicks on every top 10 position based on two variables, search volume and number of search results.

How to predict the number of organic clicks per month?

This calculator is designed to estimate the probability of a particular webpage appearing in search results on Google, specifically focusing on the likelihood of landing in the top 300, top 10, and the top 1 positions for a given search volume. It also estimates the average chance of user clicks on the top 10 search results and calculates expected clicks for each position within the top 10. Let's break down the logic step by step:

1. Likelihood of Getting Indexed

First for every query search, only 300 search results are listed. The total search results are a pool of potential results related to the keyword that Google will rank and choose the most relevant based in its algorithm. Other factors, such as domain authority and content quality etc, are not included in this calculation. This calculator assesses the chance of a specific page being one of the 300 search results displayed by Google for a single query. The higher the chance of being included, the faster you can climb and less likely to get de-indexed. The following variables can be obtained on any SEO tools, such as Semrush and Moz.

• Total Search Results: The total number of pages indexed by Google that could potentially match a given query.
• Search Volume: The number of times this specific query is made in a month.

The assumption here is that for any given search, Google will display a subset of 300 unique results from its index. The probability of appearing in any one of these 300 positions for a single query is calculated by dividing 300 by the total number of search results. This simple ratio provides the basic odds of being selected for one query.

2. Cumulative Probability Across All Queries in a Month

Considering the entire search volume for a month, the calculator then determines the cumulative probability of appearing at least once in the top 300 results. This calculation is vital because even low-probability events can become likely over a large number of trials.

To find this cumulative probability, the formula takes the single-query appearance probability (from step 1) and applies it across the entire month's search volume, considering the principle that even infrequent events are likely to happen given enough attempts.

3. Probability of Appearing in the Top 10 and Top 1 Search Results

Sometimes you newly published content will be placed on the first page and get a few organic clicks. The next step of the calculation focuses on the likelihood of being within the first 10 results out of the 300 displayed. This is significant because data shows a vast majority of user clicks happen on the first page of Google search results, with diminishing engagement on subsequent pages.

Given the appearance in the top 300, the calculator then estimates the chance of being in the top 10. This is straightforward: since 10 out of 300 results are on the first page, the chance of any one result being on the first page is 10/300.

Further narrowing the focus, the calculator estimates the chance of being the very first search result. Given a placement in the top 10, the probability of being number 1 is 1 in 10. Just because your content is published recently doesn't mean Google won't give you a chance to get clicks!

4. Average Chance of Clicks on the Top 10 Results

Understanding that not all positions in the top 10 are equal in terms of attracting clicks, the calculator uses known average click-through rates (CTRs) for each position to estimate the overall chance of receiving a click when appearing in the top 10. This step acknowledges the varied attractiveness of each rank to users, with higher positions typically receiving more clicks. The general consensus is that only 75% of Googlers would look past the first 10 search results. The percentage is higher now that Google changed to infinite scroll. Here are the CTR for each positions:

5. Estimated Clicks for Each Top 10 Position

Finally, the calculator estimates the number of clicks expected for each of the top 10 positions individually, applying the specific CTRs for each rank to the overall chance of appearing in that position. This detailed breakdown provides insight into the potential traffic from Google search at the early stage of ranking the particular keyword you are researching, demonstrating both the probability of ranking in each position and the likelihood of a click if appearing there. The third column is a simple multiplication of the search volume and CTR for each position to give a rough estimate how many clicks you get after your content is properly maintained after 6 months.